Its time to do the full-year smartphone numbers. I think we have just about all the data that will be made public, as increasingly many of the major players don't release smartphone unit sales numbers, and even the number of major analyst houses who used to provide a lot of data has shrunk to two who reliably do that anymore (IDC and Strategy Analytics). So we will do our best. We do get the total market size simply as the average of the big 2 analyst houses. For Q4 that number is 433.6 Million units. It is a growth of 8% vs the same quarter one year ago. But as our industry experienced its first-ever recession earlier in the past year and for two quarters year-on-year sales actually declined, the total year turned up with only slight growth of 3%. We end the year 2016 with still not quite 1.5B smartphones sold, we reached 1,481 million, ie 1.48 Billion. So lets start with the big tables everybody wants. The Top 10 smartphone brands for year 2016:
2016 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS
Rank . Brand . . . . 2016 units . . Share . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share
1 (1) . Samsung . . 308.9 M . . . . 20.8% . . 322.0 M . . . 22.4% . . .314.2 M . . . 24.2% 2 (2) . Apple . . . . . 215.4 M . . . . 14.5% . . 231.4 M . . . 16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8%3 (3) . Huawei . . . . 139.0 M . . . . 9.4% . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5% . . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8%4 (8) . Oppo . . . . . . . 91.0 M . . . . 6.1% . . 50.0. . . . . . . 3.5% . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - 5 (-) . . Vivo . . . . . . . . 73.0 M . . . . 4.9% . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -6 (7) . ZTE . . . . . . . 57.0 M . . . . 3.8% . . 57.2 M . . . . 4.0% . . 46.1 M . . . . 3.5%7 (6) . LG . . . . . . . . 55.1 M . . . . .3.7% . . 59.7 M . . . . 4.2% . . . 59.1 M . . . . 4.5%8 (5) . Xiaomi . . . . . . 54.3 M . . . . 3.7%. . 71.0 M . . . . .4.9%. . . . 61.1 M . . . . . 4.7% 9 (4) . Lenovo . . . . . 53.1 M . . . . 3.6% . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3% . . . 95.2 M . . . . 7.3%10 (10) . TCL-Alcatel . 38.0 M . . . . 2.6% . . 43.5 M . . . . .3.2%. . . . 41.4 M . . . . . 3.2% Other . . . . . . . . . . . 396.5 M . . . . 26.8%TOTAL . . . . . . . . .1,480.9 M . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . .1,300.6 MSource: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016This data may be freely used and repeated
There's the big table for you. The top three are stable, have been the same now for two years so Huawei was the company able to break that dangerous 'third place jinx' that seemed to doom so many rivals who were once in third place during the 'smartphone bloodbath years' we had early in this decade. Vivo is the big newcomer jumps in at number 5 and Oppo (part of the same family) is at number 4. Xiaomi never was a serious threat for world domination, and now is lingering in 8th place and doing so badly, the company stopped reporting quarterly unit sales figures. Lenovo is struggling to get traction out of its Motorola brand, LG is back to making losses with its handset business and TCL went and bought Blackberry rights after it previously had acquired Alcatel and Palm brands. The one nearly invisible mid-tier player that is solidly doing a decent job but nobody talks about them is ZTE, riding its carrier relationships and selling smarpthones and climbed one rank from 7th to 6th place.
What can I say? The 'thrill' of the bloodbath and astonishing turmoil in the Top 10 has long since passed. This is a three-horse game, Samsung, Apple and Huawei are set in their positions and that won't change in the next year, there is too much distance between the three players and the rest of the field that tries to climb up. The fight in the mid-tier is jockeying for position but thats a cut-throat Android price war going on there, same type of phones with same specs and no real loyalty anywhere. Chinese brands may climb fast on their domestic market if they have a hit phone (see Xiaomi) and then are unable to turn that into the same success globally because of .. carrier relations (see Xiaomi). And even former powerful brands like say Lenovo's Motorola or TCL's Palm (and now Blackberry) can't turn a player into an overnight success. It takes years to build the global footprint even if you are Apple (who managed it in four years) so don't expect Oppo or Vivo or any next tier player like a Meizumi or any other brands from other countries like say Karbonn or Micromax from India, to have any fast success either, even if they make it into the Top 10. If you want to watch someone, it is how Oppo does. Can it follow in Huawei's footprints (Huawei was at about the same market share two years ago). I doubt it but they're about the only interesting story in this Top 10. And outside the Top 10? HTC continues to play its long-form death. Google's Pixel hahahahaha yeah that was funny when some said they thought Google would be challenging Apple and Samsung. But the outsider to watch is. Nokia. Return has started. The only Android phone model already being sold, did over a million units of sales in Chi na in its first week. HMD the company now running the Nokia phone brand will be showing several phones in Barcelona this month at the big mobile industry event, and they will likely have half a dozen Android smartphone models by the end of the year, sold in most major markets where Nokia used to be strong. Nokia is the dark horse to watch this year, especially towards Q4. I'll give you more of my prognosis after we see the official announcements of their first phones later this month.
So that was the Top 10 brands. What about smartphone OS systems? No race there. For the year it was 84% Android, 15% iOS and less than 1% for all the other brands to share with none getting even large enough to hit 0.5% so we could round-off the number to a pretend-one-percent share. This part of the smartphone 'race' has been settled years ago as I wrote on this blog.
INSTALLED BASE
The most useful info out of this blog article series continues to be the installed base calculation, t hat nobody else is reporting. What is the total installed base of smartphones in use, rather than what numbers were sold in the past quarter; and more importantly for any developers, what is the SHARE of the installed base, by OS platforms.
2016 FULL YEAR OPERATING SYSTEM MARKET SHARES
Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . . 2016 units . . share . . .2015 units . . share . . 2014 units . . share1 (1) . . Android . . . . 2,560 M . . . . 80% . . 2,079 M . . . . . 79% . . 1,696 M . . . . . 77%2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . 602 M . . . . 19% . . . 505 M . . . . . 19% . . . 406 M . . . . . 18%Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 M . . . . . 1% . . . . . 56 M . . . . . . 2% . . 108 M . . . . . . . 5%TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . 3,193 M . . . . . . . . . . . 2,640 M . . . . . . . . . . 2,210 MSource: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016This data may be freely used and repeated
So the smartphone installed base is almost at 3.2 Billion. One in five smartphones in use worldwide is an iPhone, the other 4 out of 5 are Androids. To find ANY other smartphone OS, your chances are 1 in 100, and thats then more likely to be an ancient smartphone clutched by a loyal Nokia brand fanatic on the ancient Symbian OS, or an equally fanatical Blackberry user. Even less likely, but in some places, like in India it may perhaps be a Tizen user. And there is essentially no chance you'll find a Windows user who isn't actually working for Microsoft or is one of its suppliers.
Let me say here that if these numbers are not good enough for you - remember this is a free blog, no registration and no advertising to bug you either - nobody else gives this depth of data for free about smartphone market size - then please yes, do get yourself the brand new TomiAhonen Phone Book. It has all data fresh from one month ago, effective December 2016. For a mere 10 Euros, it has over 10 0 charts and tables of every conceivable statistic you could hope to find. Screen sizes, camera resolutions, NFC, GPS, Bluetooth, everything you could hope to know about the handset market globally and by regions as well. See table of contents and ordering page here: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016.
(For those who only occasionally visit this blog, note that the previous year's installed base numbers are lower in last year's edition of this statistical summary. We did a recalibration of the installed base numbers last year when some international user data came out. These numbers are the best ones I have, please ignore the old blogs which used the older data model).
Ok, then all we have left to do is for the serious statistical propeller-heads, the Q4 numbers as well.
BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2016
Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2016 1 (2) . . . Apple . . . . . . . 78.3 M . . 18.0% . . . . . . . ( 12.3% ) 2 (1) . . . Samsung . . . . 77.5 M . . 17.9% . . . . . . . ( 19.8% ) 3 (3) . . . Huawei . . . . . . 44.9 M . . 10.4% . . . . . . . ( 9.1% ) 4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . 30.6 M . . . 7.1% . . . . . . . ( 6.5% )5 (5) . . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . 24.3 M . . . 5.6% . . . . . . . ( 5.3% ) 6 (8) . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . 22.6 M . . . 5.2% . . . . . . . ( 3.7% )7 (7) . . . Lenovo . . . . . . 16.5 M . . . 3.8% . . . . . . . ( 3.8% )8 (6) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .15.2 M . . . 3.5% . . . . . . . ( 3.9% )9 (9) . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 14.2 M . . . 3.3% . . . . . . . ( 3.6% ) 10 (10) . TCL/Alcatel . . . 10.5 M . . . 2.4% . . . . . . . ( 2.5% ) Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.2 MTOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433.8 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 2 February 2017, based on manufacturer and industry dataThis table may be freely shared
There you go. The industry numbers all here. Top 10 brands and OS platf orm wars and installed base. Bookmark this page and send your friends, its the only place that has all the market share data in one place. And I report these numbers every quarter here, so expect the next update in April for Q1 of 2017. Last year's numbers are here if you need it.
And yes, if you need more data on the handset market - best data source on the planet is the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016. Get it while it's hot.
Source: Full Year 2016 Smartphone Market Top 10 Numbers, and OS platforms and Global Installed Base, all here. Oh, and Q4 market data as well
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